Ex-Wallaby Foley flags All Blacks weakness before Ellis Park opener

Bernard Foley believes New Zealand’s set-piece defence could decide the four-Test Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series against South Africa. The former Wallabies flyhalf has backed the Springboks to win 3-1, starting with Saturday’s opener at Ellis Park.

Foley sees a clear weakness in the All Blacks’ recent performances under Dave Rennie. While New Zealand have developed a dangerous attacking game, he believes their defensive work from set-piece launches has given opponents opportunities.

The All Blacks have won against the Stormers, Sharks and Vodacom Bulls during their early matches. Their attack has impressed when they move the ball quickly after turnovers or recycle possession at speed, particularly when they can place the ball behind the defensive line.

Foley’s concern is what happens when that attacking approach breaks down. He believes New Zealand have conceded tries from situations South Africa will study closely, with the Springboks capable of applying sustained pressure through their set piece.

Rennie’s team are expected to maintain their attacking ambition against South Africa’s rush defence. Foley believes New Zealand will continue to use layered attacking movements, depth and width, but the Ellis Park test will show whether that approach can function against a fast, aggressive defensive line.

The set-piece contest could therefore be central to the opening Test. Foley considers New Zealand competitive in that area, but not fully secure in defending after set-piece possession changes hands. South Africa’s pressure in those moments may offer the Springboks the route to control the match and begin the series as favourites.