Joshua-Fury fight 95% likely for New York as Netflix weighs cost

Anthony Joshua and Tyson Fury are now considered 90 to 95 percent likely to meet at Madison Square Garden in New York, with November 20 viewed as the probable date. The main issue still to settle is the venue, rather than whether the heavyweight fight will take place.

Joshua’s agreement covers a British staging at Wembley, a position Eddie Hearn has repeatedly maintained. Moving the bout to the United States would therefore require fresh negotiations, including the possibility of a larger payment or revised contract terms for Joshua.

The financial question is significant for Netflix and the investors behind the event. Joshua’s purse has been estimated at about £100 million, although no official figure has been confirmed. Any substantial increase for giving up the Wembley arrangement would force Netflix to assess whether an American prime-time broadcast would generate enough additional value.

New York offers the streaming platform a more favourable time slot for viewers in the United States. A late-night event in Britain would be available earlier to American subscribers, while Madison Square Garden could provide a night-time event in the US market. That scheduling advantage is central to the push for a change of venue.

The fight’s commercial appeal in America remains less established than in Britain. Joshua and Fury are well known to US boxing followers, but their rivalry has carried greater weight in Britain and both fighters are approaching the later stages of their careers. Netflix must also sell American viewers on a meeting that comes years after the rivalry was at its peak.

The limited preparation period adds pressure. A November contest would have roughly three months for promotion, yet the event has not been formally announced. Spencer Oliver expects confirmation within 14 days, or possibly sooner, while Ade Oladipo has questioned how effectively the American market can be reached in the remaining time.

Joshua has negotiating leverage because Netflix is seeking the New York venue, but that leverage has limits. Demands that make the bout too expensive could prompt a reassessment of the event’s economics, particularly as the broadcaster weighs the cost of relocating a major British heavyweight fight for a broader global audience.