Canelo Alvarez’s output weakens Edwards’ Toney-Jirov comparison
Canelo Alvarez may suit Christian Mbilli’s pressure, but his declining punch output makes a James Toney-style performance difficult to repeat.
Stephen “Breadman” Edwards expects Canelo Alvarez to perform better against Christian Mbilli on October 31, but the Mexican star’s recent punch output weakens the comparison with James Toney’s victory over Vassiliy Jirov.
Edwards sees Mbilli’s forward-moving style as a favourable match-up for Canelo’s selective counterpunching. The WBC champion is expected to attack with combinations and give Canelo the openings he prefers. That stylistic contrast has led Edwards to link the fight with Toney’s 2003 success against Jirov.
The comparison also highlights a major difference. Toney did not wait for occasional counterpunching opportunities when he faced Jirov. He absorbed the early pressure, exchanged heavily and continued to produce combinations throughout the cruiserweight title fight.
Jirov attempted 1,032 punches in that contest, while Toney threw 811 and landed 380. Canelo has never reached 800 attempts in a CompuBox-recorded bout. His highest reported total was 622 against Gennadiy Golovkin in their 2018 rematch, fought when Canelo was 28.
His activity has fallen further in recent fights. Canelo threw 338 punches against Terence Crawford last September, while Edwards’ comparison requires the kind of sustained work Toney delivered against Jirov. Canelo’s record stands at 63-3-2, with 39 victories by knockout.
Mbilli’s pressure could therefore test more than Canelo’s counterpunching. The unbeaten fighter, who has a 29-0-1 record with 24 knockouts, attacks the body repeatedly and works in combinations. Canelo remains a selective power puncher who usually operates in shorter bursts.
Canelo also appeared to fade during the second half of recent fights against Crawford, Edgar Berlanga and Jaime Munguia. Crawford did not maintain constant pressure, yet Canelo looked drained after six rounds. Mbilli’s body work and higher activity could make the later rounds particularly demanding, leaving the Toney comparison dependent on whether Canelo can remain effective beyond his early counters.
Source: Boxing News 24
