Opta model makes Arsenal 2026/27 Premier League title favourites

Arsenal are the leading candidates to win the 2026/27 Premier League title, with Opta’s supercomputer giving them a 38.0% chance of finishing first. The projection follows a 10,000-season simulation and places Manchester City second on 20.5%.

The Gunners ended their wait for a league championship in 2025/26, winning their first title since 2004. Their defensive record is central to the forecast: they conceded 27 goals last season and recorded an expected goals against figure of 0.74 per match, the fourth-lowest mark in the Premier League since 2012/13.

William Saliba’s fitness is identified as a major factor in Arsenal’s prospects. The model gives the team a 68.7% win rate when the centre-back plays, but that figure drops to 47.6% in his absence. Arsenal also missed out on Vinícius Júnior during the transfer window, while Bruno Guimarães joined Declan Rice and Martín Zubimendi in midfield. Christos Tzolis impressed in pre-season after moving from Club Brugge.

Manchester City are entering their first campaign under Enzo Maresca after Pep Guardiola’s departure. Erling Haaland remains their main attacking threat, but the squad has lost Bernardo Silva to Real Madrid and Rodri to Barcelona. Elliot Anderson has arrived in a deal worth KSh19.3 billion. Liverpool are third in the title forecast at 9.2% under Andoni Iraola, with Alexander Isak and Florian Wirtz expected to raise their levels after a difficult campaign for Isak, who scored four league goals. Mohamed Salah has also left after nine years.

Manchester United are fourth at 6.2%, a significant improvement on the 0.6% probability they had before last season. Michael Carrick is beginning his first full campaign in charge after United collected 39 points from their final 17 league matches of 2025/26, the division’s best return over that period. Arsenal lead the Champions League qualification projections at 83.0%, followed by City on 69.4% and Liverpool on 48.6%.

The model also rates the promoted clubs as vulnerable. Hull City have the highest relegation probability at 38.7%, ahead of Ipswich Town on 31.2% and Coventry City on 27.9%, raising the possibility that all three could return to the Championship immediately. Sunderland, who finished seventh last season, stand at 25.9%, while Fulham are on 23.4% after Marco Silva’s departure and Álvaro Arbeloa’s appointment.